Relevant for: energy buyers at large natural gas consumers (chemicals, glass, ceramics, paper, food, greenhouse horticulture) with a TTF-linked contract or a gas tender for 2027.
Gate terminal on the Maasvlakte has put a fourth LNG tank into service from 1 October. The terminal can now regasify 20 billion m³ of gas a year, 4 billion m³ more than before. That matters more this winter: Dutch gas storage was 60.7% full on 5 October, against an EU average of 72.8%. It is not a price cut: the TTF is still set by the global LNG market. Use the fact in your quotation discussions for 2027: ask suppliers to justify their risk premium for winter scarcity.
What is actually happening
Gasunie announced on 1 October 2026 that construction of the fourth storage tank at Gate terminal has been completed on schedule. The tank is in service from 1 October, after three years of construction. It has a storage capacity of 180,000 m³ of LNG. The expansion adds 4 billion m³ of regasification capacity a year. That brings Gate to 20 billion m³ a year. Gate is a joint venture of Gasunie and Vopak. Gasunie says the decision to build an extra tank was partly a result of the 2022 energy crisis.
For comparison: LNG Industry puts the Dutch gas market at around 30 billion m³ a year. Hellenic Shipping News, citing the Port of Rotterdam Authority, speaks of two thirds of the Dutch gas market. Note: that compares capacity with consumption; it is not a share of actual supply. Note also the interest of the sources: Gasunie co-owns Gate, and the Port Authority has an interest in more LNG throughput in Rotterdam.
The expansion coincides with low stocks. According to AGSI data from Gas Infrastructure Europe, Dutch gas storage was 60.7% full on 5 October 2026. The EU average was 72.8%.
Who is directly affected
First-order, this concerns the parties that land LNG and use the terminal capacity: traders and energy companies. As an industrial buyer, you do not buy terminal capacity. You only notice the expansion through the price and the security of supply your gas supplier offers you.
Probably not affected: those who have already fixed their entire 2027 gas volume at a fixed price. That price is fixed until renewal. For them, the expansion only matters again at the next purchasing round.
The second-order effect
Orbecta analysis: extra terminal capacity is not extra gas. It only counts when North-West European terminals are full. That scenario arises in a cold winter with less pipeline gas. With storage less full than the EU average, the Netherlands will rely more on continuous LNG supply this winter. Europe can then receive more cargoes at the same time through Rotterdam. The bottleneck shifts from the quayside to the global LNG market. Europe will then still have to outbid Asian buyers for cargoes. The TTF can still rise in that scenario, but a physical shortage caused by full terminals becomes less likely.
If the terminals are not full, the fourth tank mainly has value as a buffer. The TTF price does not change because of it.
Dutch procurement impact
Directly: no price or contract term changes automatically. A TTF-indexed contract follows the exchange. The added capacity is not part of your formula.
Indirectly: quotations for 2027 may include a risk premium for winter scarcity and flexibility. Supply capacity via Rotterdam is now demonstrably larger. That is a factual argument for asking suppliers to justify that premium. It is not an argument against a higher TTF component.
If a supplier of gas-intensive products (chemicals, glass, packaging) announces an energy surcharge for 2027 citing winter scarcity: ask which TTF reference and reference date the surcharge is based on. After this expansion, terminal scarcity is a weaker justification. The exchange price is the benchmark you can test.
What is certain and what is still uncertain
What is certain: the fourth tank has been in service since 1 October. Gate has 20 billion m³ of regasification capacity a year. Dutch gas storage was 60.7% full on 5 October, against 72.8% in the EU.
What is still uncertain: how cold the winter of 2026/27 will be and how much pipeline gas remains available. It is also uncertain how much Dutch storage will still be filled before winter. Whether the extra capacity is really needed this winter depends on that.
What to watch: TTF month contracts for Q1 2027, the fill level of Dutch gas storage and the number of LNG cargoes landed in Rotterdam.
What you can do now
- This month, ask your gas supplier to break down the 2027 quotation into the TTF component, profile and flexibility premium, and risk premium. Then decide which premium you will challenge in the negotiation.
- Are you running a gas tender for 2027 in Q4? Ask each bidder which part of its risk premium rests on physical supply risk and which part on price risk. Take that into account in the award.
- Does a supplier of gas-intensive products announce an energy surcharge citing winter scarcity? Ask in writing which TTF reference and reference date it uses, and only then decide whether to accept.
How Orbecta supports
With Claim Check you test announced energy surcharges against the underlying TTF reference. Warroom Prep helps you break down the structure of 2027 gas quotations before the negotiation. Company exposure: not yet calculated. Link spend and supplier data.
Sources
Primary source: Gasunie — Vierde LNG-tank Gate terminal gereed: versterking voor energievoorziening Nederland en Noordwest-Europa — 1 October 2026
Additional context: Energievergelijk — Gasvoorraad Nederland (AGSI data, Gas Infrastructure Europe) — status 5 October 2026
Additional context: LNG Industry — Fourth LNG tank at Gate terminal ready — 1 October 2026
Additional context: Hellenic Shipping News — The fourth LNG tank at Gate Terminal ready and commissioned — 6 October 2026
Orbecta analysis based on the sources above.