Since 1 January 2026 CBAM has been in its definitive phase, moving the carbon border adjustment from pure reporting to payment and authorisation. Anyone importing more than 50 tonnes per year of iron/steel, aluminium, cement, fertilisers, hydrogen or electricity into the EU may now only do so as an authorised CBAM declarant — otherwise Customs will not release the goods. The first declaration is due by 30 September 2027. The reference price for Q1-2026 was €75.36 per tonne of CO₂. Key action: confirm your declarant status and gather emissions data from your non-EU suppliers.
What is actually happening
CBAM (Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism) entered into force on 1 October 2023 with a transitional period running to 31 December 2025. <cite index="2-8,2-9">On 1 January 2026 the definitive phase started; in this phase binding obligations apply to importers of CBAM goods and compliance is actively monitored.</cite> The scheme covers six product categories: <cite index="2-4">iron and steel, cement, fertilisers, aluminium, electricity and hydrogen.</cite>
The core of the new phase is that reporting gives way to authorisation and payment. <cite index="4-0,4-1">Anyone wishing to import more than 50 tonnes of CBAM goods per year into the EU from 1 January 2026 must be authorised as a 'CBAM declarant' or use an indirect representative who is authorised. At the import declaration, Customs checks whether the importer or indirect customs representative is an authorised CBAM declarant; if not, the goods are not released for free circulation.</cite> <cite index="4-4">For hydrogen and electricity there is no lower threshold.</cite>
The financial obligation is deferred relative to the authorisation requirement. <cite index="1-4,1-5">By 30 September 2027, importers of CBAM goods must submit their first CBAM declaration and surrender the corresponding number of CBAM certificates.</cite> The price of those certificates is linked to the EU ETS market: <cite index="0-4,0-5">the certificate price is calculated on the basis of the auction price of EU ETS allowances expressed in €/tonne of CO₂ emitted, as a quarterly average in 2026 and as a weekly average from 2027; importers surrender the corresponding number of certificates each year.</cite> <cite index="0-7">If importers can prove that a carbon price has already been paid during production in the country of origin, that amount can be deducted.</cite>
On the cost side there is now a first concrete benchmark. According to industry body evofenedex — reporting the price calculated by the Commission — <cite index="6-0,6-1,6-2">the CBAM certificate price for the first quarter of 2026 was set at 75.36 euro per tonne of CO₂, calculated as the average of EU ETS allowances in that quarter.</cite> <cite index="6-3,6-4">The next quarterly prices appear on 6 July 2026, 5 October 2026 and 4 January 2027; certificate purchases are expected to be possible from 1 February 2027.</cite>
Structural drivers
CBAM is not a temporary measure but a pillar of EU climate policy: the instrument is intended to prevent carbon leakage as free EU ETS allowances for European producers are phased out. The levy therefore moves structurally with the ETS price — the €75.36 in Q1 is a snapshot, not a ceiling.
At the same time the scheme was simplified in 2025. <cite index="3-3,3-4,3-5">On 17 October 2025 the European Commission published an amendment to the CBAM regulation with a number of simplifications, including a temporary exception for companies importing CBAM goods in 2026 that have not yet received a decision on their authorisation application.</cite> The core of this "Omnibus" package: <cite index="1-2,1-3">a new exemption threshold of 50 tonnes for CBAM goods, exempting companies importing less than 50 tonnes per year.</cite> <cite index="1-4">That measure is expected to exempt approximately 182,000 importers, mostly SMEs and individuals, while still covering over 99% of emissions in scope.</cite> This is the formally adopted text — <cite index="3-6">Regulation (EU) 2025/2083 of 8 October 2025 amending Regulation (EU) 2023/956.</cite>
The third driver is an announced expansion of scope. <cite index="7-0,7-1">The European Commission wants to extend CBAM with around 180 downstream products, bringing an estimated 7,500 additional importers into scope from 2028, mainly in steel and aluminium.</cite> For now this is a proposal under consideration: <cite index="8-4">the Council agreed its position on 12 June 2026; once Parliament adopts its position, negotiations follow after which the proposal can be formally adopted.</cite>
Who is directly affected
First-order affected are EU-established importers (or their indirect customs representatives) exceeding the 50-tonne threshold on at least one of the six categories. In the Dutch context that mainly means: buyers of non-EU steel and aluminium (semi-finished goods, coils, profiles, extrusions), importers of fertilisers for agrifood, and buyers of cement/clinker. For hydrogen and electricity there is, as noted, no threshold.
Who is probably not (yet) affected: companies sourcing exclusively within the EU — CBAM affects imports from third countries, not intra-EU supplies — and importers who structurally stay below the 50-tonne limit and therefore fall under the exemption. Note the conditionality: that "not affected" status lapses once the import volume exceeds the threshold, once you migrate from an EU to a non-EU supplier, or — from 2028 — once the announced downstream expansion pulls your product group into scope. Companies importing only finished steel or aluminium products currently out of scope must actively track that expansion.
The second-order effect
Direct event: the levy and authorisation requirement have been binding since 1 January 2026. First-order effect: importers above the threshold bear, from 2027, a certificate cost that moves with the ETS price, plus an administrative burden (collecting, verifying and declaring emissions data).
Second-order effect (analysis, level C): non-EU producers with high, poorly documented embedded emissions may become relatively more expensive than EU producers or than non-EU suppliers with verified low emissions. That could shift the sourcing mix towards suppliers delivering reliable, verified emissions data or demonstrably paying a foreign carbon price. Condition: this effect only arises when (a) the price difference per tonne of CO₂ becomes material relative to the product margin, and (b) suppliers genuinely differ in verified emission intensity. With missing supplier data, an importer falls back on default values, which are typically conservative (high) — pushing the cost up further.
Procurement indicator to track: the quarterly certificate prices (publication 6 July 2026, 5 October 2026, 4 January 2027), the extent to which your suppliers can provide verified emissions data, and the progress of the downstream expansion dossier towards 2028.
Dutch procurement impact
Rotterdam and Amsterdam are important gateways for steel, aluminium and fertiliser imports from third countries; the NEa, together with Customs, is responsible for implementation in the Netherlands. <cite index="2-3">In the Netherlands the NEa is, together with Customs, responsible for implementing CBAM.</cite> The impact is largely direct for importers above the threshold and indirect for the Dutch manufacturing industry processing these materials.
Authorisation and customs release
The acute operational impact lies in release at the border. Without valid authorisation the shipment is not released. <cite index="4-8,4-9">Importers and indirect customs representatives who submitted an authorisation application by 31 March 2026 at the latest may — while awaiting the decision — continue to import CBAM goods.</cite> Anyone who did not apply in time yet imports above the threshold faces an enforcement risk: <cite index="5-6,5-7">importing CBAM goods without valid authorisation is an infringement; if supervision reveals this, the NEa always informs the importer or the indirect customs representative.</cite>
Contract clauses
Contracts with non-EU suppliers are often not set up for CBAM. Without a clause on delivery of (verified) emissions data, you as importer bear the data risk and fall back on higher default values. Consider clauses that (a) enforce timely, verified emissions data per shipment, (b) arrange proof of a foreign carbon price already paid, and (c) explicitly allocate the cost of certificates.
Supplier conversations
The shift from reporting to payment makes emission intensity a procurement criterion. Proactively ask existing non-EU suppliers for their installation-specific emissions data and verification status; suppliers unable to deliver this carry a higher effective landed cost.
Sourcing mix and claim defence
Expect suppliers to use CBAM as an argument for price increases. Treat such a claim as testable: the levy affects only imports from third countries above the threshold and is reduced by the EU ETS benchmark and any foreign carbon price already paid. A generic "CBAM surcharge" on intra-EU supplies or on products out of scope is not automatically justified. Alternative suppliers are not interchangeable: compare on verified emission intensity, reliability of data delivery, price and security of supply — not on a single dimension.
Budget and risk
The €75.36 per tonne of CO₂ (Q1-2026) is a usable benchmark for a first cost model, but the final cost depends on embedded emissions minus the benchmark and moves with the ETS price. Company exposure: not yet calculated — link your spend and import-volume data per HS code to the six categories to determine which flows exceed the threshold.
What is certain and what is still uncertain
What is certain: The definitive phase has been in force since 1 January 2026. Above 50 tonnes per year, authorisation as a CBAM declarant is mandatory and Customs checks for it; hydrogen and electricity have no lower threshold. The first declaration and certificate surrender is due by 30 September 2027. The Q1-2026 reference price was €75.36/tonne CO₂. The Omnibus simplification with the 50-tonne threshold has been formally adopted (Regulation (EU) 2025/2083).
What is still uncertain: The exact certificate cost per importer (level C) — this follows from installation-specific emissions, the benchmark deduction and the later ETS price. The downstream expansion towards 2028 is also still a proposal: the Council took a position on 12 June 2026, but Parliament and formal adoption must still follow. The extent to which the sourcing mix actually shifts is analysis, not a certain outcome.
What to watch: the quarterly prices (6 July 2026, 5 October 2026, 4 January 2027, then weekly prices), the availability of verified emissions data from your suppliers, NEa enforcement signals, and the progress of the downstream expansion dossier.
What you can do now
- Confirm your declarant status (this month). Have your customs forwarder or internal customs department confirm in writing whether you or the indirect customs representative is the authorised CBAM declarant for your imports, and whether an authorisation application was submitted in time. Then decide: submit an application after all, or contractually fix the representation.
- Request emissions data from non-EU suppliers (this quarter). Ask each supplier for installation-specific, verified embedded-emissions data and proof of any foreign carbon price already paid. Decide: flag suppliers without data delivery for renegotiation or reallocation.
- Build a first cost model (this quarter). Have finance/category link import volumes per HS code to the six categories and model the certificate cost using €75.36/tonne as the starting assumption. Decide: which flows exceed the threshold and where budget or price agreements need adjusting.
- Revise contract clauses (this quarter). Have legal/contract include a CBAM clause covering data delivery, verification and cost allocation in new or renewing contracts with non-EU suppliers. Decide: adopt a standard clause before the next contract round.
- Assess downstream exposure (this year). Have category management map which currently out-of-scope steel and aluminium products you import, and track the expansion dossier. Decide: where exceedance is expected from 2028, prepare a declarant application in good time.
How Orbecta supports
For origin-country and corridor risk of your non-EU steel and aluminium flows, the Supply Risk Index maps which flows are most CBAM-sensitive. Contract Intelligence helps scan existing contracts for missing CBAM and emissions-data clauses, and Claim Check supports testing supplier-announced "CBAM surcharges" against the actual scope of the scheme.
Sources
Primary source: European Commission (DG TAXUD) — Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism, official page and news item "Officially published: Simplifications for CBAM" — 20 October 2025. Primary source: Netherlands Emissions Authority (NEa) — "CBAM", "Authorisation as CBAM declarant" and "Supervision and enforcement CBAM" — accessed 2026. Primary source: Council of the EU (Consilium) — "Council moves to strengthen the EU's carbon border adjustment mechanism" — 12 June 2026. Operational confirmation: evofenedex — "CBAM starts with a certificate price of 75.36 euro per tonne of CO₂" and "CBAM extended: 7,500 additional importers affected from 2028". Additional context: PwC Netherlands — "EC proposes CBAM expansion to 180 downstream products". Orbecta analysis based on the sources above.