Defence scale-up and Chinese export controls are putting pressure on raw materials that Dutch civil buyers share with the arms industry. According to Fastmarkets, tungsten APT cif Rotterdam rose from $900-940 per mtu in January 2026 to $2,800-3,280 in week 15. Brussels calls export controls with a "presumption of denial" for military end use a threat. Rheinmetall plans to convert civil nitrocellulose capacity to military use. Possibly affected: machinery (hardmetal), plastics and cable chains (antimony) and coatings (nitrocellulose). Core action: request surcharge formulas, origin and allocation terms this month.
What is actually happening
Three developments are converging. Each has its own cause, so they are treated separately below.
1. Tungsten: export price decoupled from the Chinese domestic market. Fastmarkets' price assessment for tungsten APT (ammonium paratungstate, 88.5% WO3 min, cif Rotterdam and Baltimore, duty-free) rose from $900-940 per mtu WO3 in January 2026 to $1,650-1,900 per mtu by mid-February (market research, Fastmarkets, 18 March 2026). Producer EQ Resources reported a range of $2,800-3,280 per mtu in week 15 on 14 April 2026, citing Fastmarkets (operational market party, not independently verified). Fastmarkets states that China controls more than three-quarters of global supply. On 29 June 2026 Fastmarkets reported that tungsten concentrate in China was around 50% below its record of 11 March. This did not feed through to the APT export market, where access to supply set the price. Concentrate cif global has been at $2,500-2,800 per mtu since 29 May, against $750-850 at the start of 2026. Orbecta did not find a more recent APT cif Rotterdam quotation than week 15, so you need to verify the current reference date yourself.
2. Antimony: prices down but structurally higher. According to Geopolitical Monitor (26 March 2026, using Fastmarkets data), antimony hit a record of approximately $59,750 per tonne on 4 July 2025. In early 2026 the price was between $26,000 and $47,000 per tonne, depending on region. That is three to five times pre-2024 levels. China's US-specific export ban has been suspended until late November 2026, but the underlying licensing regime remains in place. A Govini analysis cited in the same source found more than 80,000 weapons parts across 1,900 US weapon systems that contain antimony, gallium, germanium, tungsten or tellurium. That figure concerns the US DoD, not European systems.
3. Policy and industry are prioritising defence. On 3 December 2025 the European Commission adopted the RESourceEU Action Plan (COM(2025) 945). The plan explicitly names defence as a priority sector. It includes a European Critical Raw Materials Centre, joint purchasing via the Raw Materials Platform and a coordinated EU approach to stockpiling. The Commission writes that export controls on critical raw materials "with presumption of denial for military end use" represent a "clear and present threat" to European security. Member States are encouraged to use SAFE financing for raw material stockpiles for defence products. On the industry side, Rheinmetall acquired Hagedorn-NC, a German producer of industrial nitrocellulose, in April 2025. According to Defense News, Rheinmetall plans to convert that production to military grade in the coming months. According to the press release, existing civil customers will continue to be supplied "for the time being".
Structural drivers
Demand shock on the ammunition side. According to Defense News, the EU expected to produce 2 million artillery shells in 2025, against an estimated annual capacity of 230,000 in early 2023. Industry and the EU jointly invested more than €1.5 billion in capacity for explosives, propellant and shells. Those volumes require nitrocellulose, tungsten (for penetrators and hardmetal, among other uses) and antimony (for antimonial lead, among other uses). These are partly the same raw materials that civil supply chains use.
Export control as an instrument. For tungsten and antimony, Chinese licensing regimes have decoupled price formation from physical scarcity, according to Fastmarkets and Geopolitical Monitor. The export price is set by access to supply, not by production cost. For Dutch buyers it matters that the common APT benchmark is literally cif Rotterdam. The European reference price therefore reflects exactly this export market, not the cheaper Chinese domestic market.
Dutch policy targets the defence chain itself. The Defence Strategy for Industry and Innovation 2025-2029 (4 April 2025) links the scale-up of the armed forces to strengthening the Dutch and European defence industry. According to the Ministry of Defence, the cabinet is investing more than one billion in the Dutch defence industry. In a letter to parliament on critical raw materials in the defence industry, the cabinet announced a pilot for roadmaps under the National Raw Materials Strategy, with military ships as the first product group. The Netherlands Materials Observatory supports this with data and monitoring. These instruments target the defence chain, not civil buyers of the same raw materials.
Who is directly affected
First order, with confirmed price or policy impact:
- Buyers of tungsten APT and derived products (tungsten carbide powder, hardmetal) who buy on a cif Rotterdam basis or through a formula linked to it. The price movement has been established for this specific benchmark.
- Defence primes and their suppliers in the Netherlands, Germany and the rest of the EU. RESourceEU and SAFE explicitly direct financing and stockpiling towards defence products.
- Civil customers of Hagedorn-NC. According to Rheinmetall, their supply continues "for the time being".
Probably not directly affected: companies without tungsten-, antimony- or nitrocellulose-containing categories, and buyers with qualified non-Chinese sources and enforceable price and volume guarantees. The latter group can still be affected at contract renewal, through material surcharges or availability reservations, or when their supplier itself buys Chinese intermediate product. In addition, according to AZoMining, market participants expect sufficient antimony supply in 2026. That dampens the acute risk for that raw material.
The second-order effect
What follows is Orbecta analysis (level C), not an established market development.
| Chain | First order | Possible second-order effect | Condition | Indicator |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tungsten | APT cif Rotterdam roughly tripled (Jan-April 2026) | May feed through hardmetal powder into prices of cutting tools, drills, wear parts and mining tools | Tool manufacturers hold little stock or few non-Chinese sources, or apply APT-linked surcharges | Tungsten surcharges on invoices, shorter price validity in quotes |
| Antimony | Price 3-5× pre-2024 level | May put pressure on flame retardants (antimony trioxide) in compounds, cables and textiles | High prices persist and suppliers pass them on; according to AZoMining, flame-retardant buyers substitute or thrift antimony when prices rise sharply | Surcharge clauses, reformulation announcements, specification change requests |
| Nitrocellulose | Planned conversion of civil capacity at Hagedorn-NC to military | Increases the risk of allocation or price pressure for NC-containing lacquers, inks and coatings | Defence demand keeps growing and other NC producers also prioritise military grade | Allocation notices, longer lead times, supplier changes in formulations |
| Policy | EU stockpiling and joint purchasing for defence | May reduce spot volume available to civil buyers | Public stockpiles are actually filled in a tight market | Raw Materials Platform tenders, SAFE allocations |
The mechanism is crowding out, not just a higher price. Where defence gets priority through policy or vertical integration, a civil buyer competes for the same volume with a party that is less price-sensitive.
Whether this crowding-out effect actually occurs in Dutch civil supply chains has not been demonstrated. The volume effect depends on inventory levels, substitution and how quickly non-Chinese capacity becomes available. IISS states that only a handful of the 60 strategic projects under the CRMA explicitly target defence.
Dutch procurement impact
Contract clauses: which index, which reference date
For hardmetal-containing tools and wear parts, especially in machinery, metalworking, offshore and dredging, the impact depends on the price formula. A tungsten surcharge linked to Fastmarkets APT cif Rotterdam follows the export market. A formula based on a Chinese domestic quotation, or one without indexation, behaves very differently. The impact is direct if the surcharge passes through automatically, and indirect if the supplier reprices at renewal. Because APT is quoted in USD, the EUR/USD rate on the reference date also determines what you pay in euros. The tungsten content of a tool varies by product. A BOM calculation only makes sense with a supplier cost breakdown.
Supplier conversations: origin is the new price question
Because the export price is set by access to supply, according to Fastmarkets, the origin of your supplier's APT and carbide powder (China, non-China, recycling) matters at least as much as the price. The same applies to antimony trioxide in compounds and nitrocellulose in coatings. Many civil buyers do not know this tier-2 and tier-3 origin. Your own company's exposure has not yet been calculated. To do that you need to link spend and supplier data.
Sourcing mix: alternatives are not equivalent
Non-Chinese tungsten sources, recycled carbide (via regrinding and take-back programmes) and antimony-free flame retardants are not like-for-like replacements. Compare them on qualification lead time (recertification of cables and compounds can take months), technical performance, availability at volume, traceability and price basis. Build a benchmark on those criteria, not a shortlist based on price alone.
Claim defence: surcharge versus net effect
Expect justifications for tungsten and antimony surcharges at renewal. Test three things. Does the index used cover the supplier's actual purchasing channel? Is the reference date correct, given that Chinese concentrate prices are already around 50% below the March record, according to Fastmarkets? And does a price fall pass through symmetrically with the rise? Suppliers that buy in China have different costs than the export benchmark suggests.
Budget and risk: suppliers to defence
Dutch suppliers to defence primes, for example in shipbuilding, electronics and precision engineering, may face additional origin and end-use requirements. The Commission explicitly mentions export controls with a presumption of denial for military end use, including extraterritorial controls on defence equipment that contains critical raw materials. What obligations this creates for your specific contracts must be assessed by your own compliance or legal function. For the 2027 budget, a scenario budget is more appropriate than a point estimate.
What is certain and what remains uncertain
What is certain
- Fastmarkets APT 88.5% WO3 cif Rotterdam/Baltimore: $900-940 per mtu (January 2026) to $1,650-1,900 (mid-February). The producer reported $2,800-3,280 in week 15, citing Fastmarkets.
- Chinese concentrate stood around 50% below its record of 11 March 2026 at the end of June. The APT export market did not follow that fall.
- The European Commission adopted RESourceEU on 3 December 2025, with defence as a priority, a coordinated stockpiling approach and joint purchasing.
- Rheinmetall plans to convert Hagedorn-NC production to military nitrocellulose. Civil customers are supplied "for the time being".
- The cabinet is testing roadmaps for critical raw materials in the defence industry, with military ships as the first product group.
What remains uncertain
- The current APT level after April 2026. Orbecta found no more recent cif Rotterdam quotation.
- Whether, when and to what extent prices of hardmetal, compounds and coatings in the Netherlands will follow. No primary source confirms this for the Dutch market.
- Whether EU stockpiling noticeably reduces civil spot volume, and how quickly non-Chinese capacity becomes available.
- How the Chinese licensing regime develops after November 2026.
What to watch
- The weekly Fastmarkets APT cif Rotterdam quotation and the spread against the Chinese domestic APT quotation.
- Tungsten and antimony surcharges on invoices, and price validity in quotes (in days).
- Allocation notices and lead times for nitrocellulose-containing products.
- EU Raw Materials Platform tenders and matchmaking rounds, and allocations under SAFE.
What you can do now
- This month. The category manager for machining and tooling asks the top 5 hardmetal suppliers in writing for their price formula: which tungsten index, which reference date, which currency, what price validity and what origin for APT and carbide powder. Then decide between indexation with a cap and floor, or a fixed price with a shorter term.
- This month. The chemicals and coatings buyer asks suppliers of lacquers, inks and adhesives which nitrocellulose source they use, whether allocation or priority clauses apply to it, and which alternative source is qualified. Decide whether a second formulation or supplier should be qualified.
- This quarter. The polymers and cables buyer asks compound and cable suppliers whether antimony trioxide is in the flame-retardant formulation, what its origin is and which antimony-free variants are available, with qualification lead time. Decide on dual qualification for critical items.
- This quarter. Suppliers to defence primes ask their customer which origin and end-use requirements for raw materials apply to current and new orders. At the same time they ask their own sub-suppliers for origin declarations for tungsten, antimony and other critical raw materials. Decide with legal and compliance which contracts need to be amended.
- This year. The procurement director has scenarios modelled for the 2027 budget for each tungsten- and antimony-containing category: full fixing, partial fixing, phased call-offs, indexation, life extension via regrinding and take-back, and substitution. First request price validity, volume certainty and a transparent surcharge build-up. Then decide on the contract strategy per category.
How Orbecta supports
The Supply Risk Index tracks the Chinese licensing regime and origin concentration for tungsten, antimony and nitrocellulose. Contract Intelligence shows which contracts contain tungsten or antimony surcharges, index links or allocation reservations. Claim Check tests surcharge claims against the correct benchmark and reference date. Warroom Prep prepares the renewal conversation with hardmetal and compound suppliers based on origin and scenarios.
Sources
Primary source: European Commission — New measures to secure raw materials and strengthen the EU's economic security — 3 December 2025 Primary source: European Commission — RESourceEU Action Plan, COM(2025) 945 final — 3 December 2025 Primary source: Rheinmetall — Rheinmetall takes over Hagedorn-NC GmbH — 7 April 2025 Primary source: Ministry of Defence (Netherlands) — Defence Strategy for Industry and Innovation 2025-2029 (Dutch-language publication) — 4 April 2025 Primary source: House of Representatives (letter to parliament) — Defence industry: critical raw materials and risky dependencies in supply chains (Dutch-language publication) — 2025 (exact date not specified in the version consulted) Operational confirmation: EQ Resources — Tungsten market newsflash week 15 (2026) — 14 April 2026 Independent main source: Defense News — Rheinmetall secures nitrocellulose supply amid European ammo scramble — 7 April 2025 Market research: Fastmarkets — Tungsten 2026: Geopolitics sets global tone — 18 March 2026 Market research: Fastmarkets — Tungsten markets fragmenting as domestic Chinese APT market diverges from exports — 29 June 2026 Market research: IISS — Securing critical raw materials for European defence — 29 August 2025 Additional context: Geopolitical Monitor — Critical Minerals: Global Antimony Supply & Demand — 26 March 2026 Additional context: AZoMining — The Antimony Market in 2026: Supply, Demand, and Price Trends — 7 August 2026
Orbecta analysis based on the sources above.