Relevant for: buyers of road transport and distribution, fleet managers and contract managers with diesel- or CPI-linked price clauses.
Energy was 13.9% more expensive in September than a year earlier, Statistics Netherlands (CBS) reports. That increase now sits in the indices suppliers use to revise their prices in January. At the same time, the G7 is front-loading diesel releases from emergency stocks, and the Dutch government has scrapped the e-highway for lorries. The key question this week: does your haulier pass on a diesel fall as fast as a rise? Fix reference, reference date and revision frequency before the Q4 indexation round.
The week in one sentence
The diesel price drives your transport costs, but your contract clause decides how fast you feel it, in both directions.
The signals
Energy drives inflation, including in services
According to the CBS flash estimate, inflation was 3.4% in September, against 3.3% in August. Energy including motor fuels was 13.9% more expensive than a year earlier. In August that figure was 11.6%. Services rose 3.9% year on year, against 3.7% a month earlier. Industrial goods excluding energy rose 1.5%.
Orbecta analysis: many service and transport contracts index on 1 January to the CPI of a fixed reference month. If that reference month falls in the autumn, the supplier builds the energy peak into his rate for the whole of 2027. That holds even if the diesel price falls afterwards.
G7 releases 100 million barrels, diesel first
On 2 October the G7 announced the release of 100 million barrels of oil and oil products, Al Jazeera, among others, reports, quoting the G7 statement. The release runs over four months and starts with a substantial volume of diesel in the first 20 days. According to BNN Bloomberg, it is unclear whether the 100 million barrels come on top of the volume pledged in March.
The pump price has barely responded so far. UnitedConsumers calculated the average national recommended price (GLA) for diesel at € 2.750 per litre on 5 October, including VAT. According to Carblogger, which shows the same series, it was € 2.770 on 2 October. In autumn 2025 the GLA stood at around € 1.932 per litre, according to ANP. The TLN fuel monitor gives € 2.298 per litre for bulk diesel on 4 October. That is a different measure: excluding VAT and for large buyers.
Government ends the e-highway
Minister Karremans of Infrastructure and Water Management is ending the exploration of overhead lines for electric lorries, Nieuwsblad Transport reports based on his letter to parliament. According to the minister, the cost-benefit analysis gave no reason to continue. According to TTM.nl, the reserved budget of 115 million euros goes to other measures for cleaner road transport.
Orbecta analysis: anyone running electric trucks in the Netherlands will therefore charge at the depot or at public charging points. That makes the grid connection at your haulier's depot more important. For the coming years, most of your road transport runs on diesel.
The common thread
All three signals concern the same cost item: the energy in your road transport. The CBS figures show that these costs now sit in the general indices. The G7 release can make diesel cheaper. The end of the e-highway means diesel stays your hauliers' main fuel for longer.
That moves the negotiation from the pump to the clause. A fuel surcharge with weekly revision passes on a fall quickly. A surcharge with a monthly reference date or a January CPI indexation locks in the peak. Anyone who does not know which reference his haulier uses will pay the September peak in 2027.
Dutch procurement impact
Direct: road transport and distribution contracts with a fuel surcharge based on the GLA or TLN bulk price. Worked example as an Orbecta assumption: a tractor-trailer using 30 litres per 100 km costs € 3 per 100 km for every 10 cents of diesel difference.
Indirect: services with CPI indexation, such as facility management, cleaning and maintenance. Services rose 3.9% according to CBS. Suppliers who index to the headline CPI include the energy component.
If the G7 diesel pushes down the European price: then shippers with weekly surcharge revision benefit most. Shippers with fixed rates or a monthly reference date feel the fall later or not at all.
Probably not directly affected: shippers who move their freight entirely by rail or inland waterway, and contracts with all-in rates without a surcharge. They are still affected at contract renewal, when the haulier builds diesel costs into the new base rate.
What is certain and what is still uncertain
What is certain: inflation 3.4% in September in the flash estimate, energy +13.9% and services +3.9% year on year (CBS). The G7 is releasing 100 million barrels over four months, with diesel in the first 20 days. The GLA for diesel was € 2.750 per litre on 5 October. The e-highway exploration has been ended.
What is still uncertain: how much diesel Europe itself releases, and whether the 100 million barrels come on top of the March pledge. It is also uncertain how long the Middle East disruption keeps the diesel market tight. The final CBS figure for September may differ from the flash estimate.
What to watch: track the GLA for diesel and the TLN bulk price daily until the end of October. Check the surcharge percentages on your haulier invoices for October and November. Watch for indexation letters from service providers ahead of 1 January.
What you can do now
- Ask every haulier this week which diesel reference, reference date and revision frequency his fuel surcharge uses. Demand weekly revision before 1 November if a fall currently takes a month to come through.
- Have your contract manager list all service contracts with CPI indexation on 1 January before 31 October. Choose per contract between indexation to the headline CPI or to an index excluding energy.
- In your 2027 transport tender, ask every haulier per lane how he charges electric trucks now the e-highway is off. Compare on depot connection, charging time and deployment guarantee, not on price alone.
How Orbecta supports
Contract Intelligence finds the surcharge and indexation clauses in your haulier and service contracts, with reference and reference date. Claim Check tests incoming indexation letters against current CBS and diesel figures. Warroom Prep prepares those figures for your Q4 talks with hauliers. Company exposure: not yet calculated. Link spend and supplier data.
Sources
Primary source: CBS — Inflatie in september 3,4 procent bij snelle raming — 2 October 2026 Operational confirmation: TLN — Brandstofmonitor Nederland — prices as of 4 October 2026 Independent main source: Al Jazeera — G7 to release 100m oil barrels as Trump hails Europe diesel deal — 2 October 2026 Independent main source: BNN Bloomberg — G7 nations will release 100 million barrels of oil and diesel fuel after prices soar — 2 October 2026 Additional context: UnitedConsumers — Actuele Diesel brandstofprijzen — 5 October 2026 Additional context: Carblogger — Actuele brandstofprijzen Benelux — 2 October 2026 Additional context: ANP — Dieselprijs stijgt naar hoogste punt sinds februari — autumn 2025 Additional context: Nieuwsblad Transport — Kabinet trekt stekker uit 'e-highway' voor vrachtwagens — 5 October 2026 Additional context: TTM.nl — Trucks aan de bovenleiding gaat niet door; 115 miljoen euro komt vrij — 5 October 2026
Orbecta analysis based on the sources above.