Iron ore and scrap via Rotterdam down 5.9%: low water raises hinterland costs while ocean freight falls

Relevant for: buyers of steel, scrap, iron ore, coal and construction raw materials supplied via Rotterdam and the Rhine to the Netherlands or Germany, and shippers with bulk or inland-waterway contracts.

Throughput of iron ore and scrap in Rotterdam fell by 5.9% in January–September 2026. Among other factors, the Port of Rotterdam Authority points to low water on European rivers: transport became more expensive and supply was restricted. Meanwhile, global dry bulk ocean freight, measured by the Baltic Dry Index, has fallen for three weeks. The cost pressure the Port Authority describes sits in hinterland transport; at sea, the proxy points the other way. Split freight claims by leg and, before the 2027 renewals, check how suppliers pass on freight.

What is actually happening

On 16 October 2026, the Port of Rotterdam Authority published its throughput figures for January to September. Total throughput rose by 0.9% to 323.2 million tonnes. Beneath that small increase are large differences by cargo type.

The fall in iron ore and scrap stands out. German steel production rose by 6% over the same period, the Port Authority reports. Steelmakers drew more on their stocks, and less scrap was available for export via Rotterdam. The Port Authority cites both as causes alongside transport costs; it gives no amount or percentage for the higher transport costs.

At sea, freight is moving the other way. According to the Baltic Exchange weekly report, carried by Daily Cargo News, the Baltic Dry Index (BDI) closed at 2,511 points on 16 October. A week earlier it stood at 2,917. That is the lowest level in just over three months. According to Baird Maritime, it was the third weekly loss in a row; the Capesize index, for the largest bulk carriers, fell 25% that week to 3,249 points, its lowest level since early April.

According to the Baltic Exchange, the BDI is a composite of timecharter rates for Capesize, Panamax and Supramax vessels. That makes it a global proxy, not a route price to Rotterdam or along the Rhine. The Baltic Exchange does publish routes to Rotterdam, such as C2 (Tubarão–Rotterdam) and C7 (Bolívar–Rotterdam), but the public sources used here give no current price per tonne for those routes or for Rhine freight during low water.

Containers follow their own path. Drewry's World Container Index rose 3% on 15 October to $4,485 per 40ft container, mainly due to higher Asia–Europe rates (Daily Cargo News). That is a container index, not a bulk index.

The wider picture comes from UNCTAD, in a publication dated 21 July. Global goods trade was worth around US$13.7 trillion in the first half of 2026, 12.5% more than a year earlier. Much of that growth comes from higher prices rather than higher volumes. Prices of traded goods rose by around 3.6% in Q1 and an estimated 5% in Q2. Trade in iron and steel contracted. According to UNCTAD, the disruption around Hormuz raised energy, transport, logistics and production costs. UNCTAD gives no figure for transport costs themselves, and the picture may have shifted since July.

Structural drivers

The first driver is the river: low water makes hinterland supply more expensive and more limited. Orbecta analysis: the figures point to a supply constraint despite higher German steel production.

The second driver is energy. After the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, imports of oil products from the Middle East dropped away, according to the Port Authority. High gas prices pushed up demand for thermal coal. Together with the recovery in coking coal, that explains why coal is growing while ore and scrap are shrinking.

The third driver is at sea. Measured by the global BDI, bulk freight is easing. Anyone looking only at that ocean freight proxy misses the leg that, according to the Port Authority, did become more expensive: hinterland transport.

Who is directly affected

Direct: steelmakers in the Rhine hinterland, mainly in Germany, that bring in ore and scrap via the Rhine, and their scrap suppliers and traders. Also buyers purchasing delivered to the plant or delivered Germany: that price includes hinterland transport.

Direct: shippers with their own inland-waterway contract for dry bulk on the Rhine. They see the low-water costs through their own carrier.

Indirect: buyers of steel products from rolling mills in the Rhine hinterland. Their supplier pays for the more expensive supply. It reaches you only through a material or freight surcharge, or at the next pricing round.

Probably not affected: buyers purchasing bulk CIF Rotterdam and processing it at the coast, with no Rhine leg.

Container importers (Orbecta analysis): they fall outside this dry bulk ocean freight signal, but can still be affected by low water in the hinterland if their containers move by inland waterway.

If you buy construction raw materials: other dry bulk is growing by 15% on construction demand. If that supply moves via the Rhine, the same low-water logic applies.

The second-order effect

Orbecta analysis, in three scenarios. We have no forecast for water levels.

Scenario 1: low water returns. Supply costs for ore and scrap to hinterland plants would then stay high, while steelmakers keep running on stocks they have already drawn down. If they all replenish those stocks once water levels rise, demand for inland-waterway capacity could concentrate in a short period. Indicator: low-water surcharges on invoices and waiting times for barge capacity.

Scenario 2: the fall in ocean bulk freight continues. That would be a reason to re-examine the freight basis in new CFR and CIF quotes for ore, coal and construction raw materials. A falling BDI does not automatically mean your route price falls: route, contract type, bunker component and long-term charters can move differently. Indicator: weekly BDI and Capesize index alongside the freight component in quotes.

Scenario 3: scrap supply via Rotterdam stays tight. Less scrap would then remain available for export via Rotterdam; that mainly affects traders and exporters on that route. Indicator: iron ore and scrap throughput in the Port Authority's Q4 figures.

Dutch procurement impact

Company exposure: not yet calculated. Connect spend and supplier data.

Contract clauses: two freight mechanisms

Direct: in a CIF or CFR contract, ocean freight to Rotterdam is included in the price. That component only moves with a new quote or through a freight clause. With delivery to the plant, inland-waterway transport is also included in the price. How quickly a low-water surcharge feeds through and falls back depends on the water-level reference and the review frequency in your contract; those mechanisms are not public per contract.

If you have a fixed price: it protects you against higher freight costs to the extent that the contract contains no separate freight, surcharge or other price-review provision. If it does contain such a provision, the low-water cost can still pass through it.

Claim defence

If a supplier justifies an increase with higher transport costs: ask which leg they mean. The global dry bulk ocean freight proxy is falling. According to the Port Authority, the Rhine leg did become more expensive, but no public amount is available. Ask the supplier to substantiate that leg with invoices or surcharges. A reference to the container index does not belong in a bulk claim.

Budget 2027

Indirect: in the 2027 budget, separate ocean freight from hinterland transport. The two are currently moving in opposite directions; an average freight line hides that. Set the hinterland line apart, with the low-water surcharge as a variable component.

What is certain and what is still uncertain

What is certain

• Iron ore and scrap throughput in Rotterdam −5.9% in Jan–Sep 2026.
• Port Authority: low water raised transport costs and restricted supply.
• German steel production +6% over the same period.
• BDI at 2,511 points on 16 October, lowest in just over three months.

What is still uncertain

• How many euros per tonne the higher hinterland costs amount to.
• Whether low water returns this autumn.
• Whether the fall in bulk freight continues.
• How quickly steelmakers replenish their stocks.

What to watch

• Low-water surcharges on invoices from inland-waterway carriers.
• Weekly BDI and Capesize index.
• Q4 iron ore and scrap throughput from the Port Authority.
• Freight component in new CIF and delivered quotes.

What you can do now

1. This month, ask your steel or scrap supplier with delivered terms how much of their Q4 price consists of hinterland transport and whether they pass on low-water costs separately. Then decide whether to accept or dispute a freight claim.
2. This month, ask your CIF and CFR suppliers of ore, coal and construction raw materials which freight reference date their quote is based on. Use the falling BDI in the discussion on the freight basis of new quotes as a signal, not as evidence for your route.
3. This quarter, ask your inland-waterway carrier which water-level reference and review frequency their low-water surcharge uses. Before the 2027 renewal, decide whether you want to agree a capped surcharge scale.

How Orbecta helps

If you receive a price increase justified by transport, Claim Check tests it against market data, such as the falling bulk freight. Contract Intelligence analyses an uploaded bulk or inland-waterway contract for clauses such as price review and surcharges, so you know which freight mechanism applies before the renewal.

Sources

Primary source: Port of Rotterdam Authority — Throughput in the port of Rotterdam rose by 0.9% in the first nine months of the year — 16 October 2026

Primary source: UNCTAD — Global Trade Update (July/August 2026): Global trade continues to expand amid rising price pressures — 21 July 2026

Additional context: Baltic Exchange — Indices — date not specified

Additional context: Daily Cargo News — Baltic Exchange Weekly Report - 16 October 2026 — 19 October 2026

Additional context: Daily Cargo News — World Container Index – 15 October 2026 — 16 October 2026

Additional context: Baird Maritime — Baltic index stays in the doldrums as Capesize rates slide further — 16 October 2026

Orbecta analysis based on the sources above.