The Rhine gauge at Kaub, the shallowest bottleneck towards southern Germany and Switzerland, stands at 3 cm and may fall below zero this week; at Lobith, 6.10 m was measured on 27 September, the lowest level since 1866. What is new compared with August: this is no longer a spike but a prolonged period, with 74 days below the 78 cm threshold. Buyers with bulk, chemical, fuel or container flows on the Rhine should quantify their Q4 surcharge exposure this week and secure alternative capacity contractually.
What is actually happening
Rijkswaterstaat reported on 24 September that discharge at Lobith had fallen to just over 600 m³/s and that discharge at Maxau (around 350 m³/s) was lower than the lowest point of mid-August. According to Rijkswaterstaat measurement data, via ANP, the Rhine at Lobith stood at 6.10 m around midday on Sunday 27 September, the lowest level since measurements began in 1866; the previous record (6.12 m) dated from August. At Kaub, the gauge stands at 3 cm according to figures from the German waterways authority WSA, with a forecast towards –3 cm this week; at Cologne 40 cm, expected to reach 36 cm. The gauge is not the navigable depth, but it does determine the permissible load.
Bloomberg reports, based on Volt Power Analytics, that the Rhine has spent 74 days below 78 cm this year, the threshold below which barges must cut loads by around 30%, against 41 days in 2022. Barge freight costs for diesel from Rotterdam to Karlsruhe rose 15% on 21 September, after more than doubling in September. In the Netherlands, one-way traffic applies on the IJssel between Zutphen and Westervoort; for the Rhine itself, Rijkswaterstaat says no additional measures are needed for now.
Who is directly affected
First order: shippers and consignees with barge flows upstream of Kaub (Mainz, Mannheim, Karlsruhe, Basel), particularly liquid bulk (diesel, heating oil, chemicals), dry bulk (coal, ore) and container barging. Load restrictions are also likely on the Lower Rhine up to the Ruhr area now that Cologne is at a record low.
Probably not directly affected: pure road haulage, ocean freight to Rotterdam without barge on-carriage, and air freight. They may still be affected if the shift to rail and road tightens capacity on the Rotterdam–Rhine-Main corridor.
The second-order effect
Orbecta analysis. Less cargo per vessel means more voyages per tonne and a shift to rail and truck. That may put pressure on rail and truck capacity between Rotterdam and southern Germany and on spot truck rates on those lanes. A second chain runs through German suppliers: the Kiel Institute states that a full month below 78 cm at Kaub has historically coincided with roughly 1% lower German industrial production. That increases the risk of lead-time extensions or cost claims from German chemical and metals suppliers that receive their raw materials by barge.
Condition: the Kaub gauge stays below 78 cm for weeks. According to Bloomberg, a high-pressure system remains in place until the end of September and the level may fall further.
Dutch procurement impact
Direct: barge contracts on the ARA–Germany corridor with low-water surcharges. After 74 days, the surcharge may feed through into Q4 budgets. Indirect: purchasing from German suppliers of chemicals, steel and machine-building components, and fuel purchasing for sites in southern Germany. Possible: eastern Dutch inland ports via the IJssel (one-way traffic slows turnaround times).
Company exposure: not yet calculated — link spend and supplier data.
What is certain and what remains uncertain
What is certain: record levels at Lobith, Cologne and Kaub; 74 days below 78 cm; diesel barge freight Rotterdam–Karlsruhe more than doubled in September; one-way traffic on the IJssel.
What remains uncertain: how long the low water will last, whether rail and truck capacity becomes measurably tighter, and whether German suppliers will submit claims.
What to watch: Kaub gauge forecast (BfG/WSA), low-water surcharge scales from your barge operator, booking slots on rail Rotterdam–Rhine-Main, spot truck rates to southern Germany, lead-time notifications from German suppliers.
What you can do now
- Logistics buyer, this week: ask your barge operator in writing which gauge (Kaub or Duisburg-Ruhrort) and which surcharge scale applies to your contract and what it is at 0 cm; then decide whether to shift volumes to rail.
- Category manager, within 7 days: have your freight forwarder quote rail and truck capacity for critical shipments to southern Germany, including price validity and capacity guarantee; compare on transit time, cost per tonne and terminal connectivity.
- Contract manager, this week: review force majeure and hardship clauses in your barge contracts: can the carrier suspend performance in extreme low water, and who bears the additional cost of alternative routing?
- Supplier manager, within 14 days: ask your top German chemical and metals suppliers how their raw-material supply runs via the Rhine and whether they expect lead-time or price adjustments; then decide between safety stock and phased call-offs.
- Controller with procurement, before the Q4 forecast: model two scenarios (low water until mid-October versus until end-November) for surcharges and alternative routing costs.
How Orbecta supports
The Supply Risk Index tracks the Rhine corridor; Contract Intelligence shows which contracts contain low-water and force majeure clauses, and Claim Check tests incoming supplier claims against the actual gauge history.
Sources
- Primary source: Rijkswaterstaat — Current situation Rhine (Dutch-language page) — 24 September 2026
- Independent main source: Bloomberg — Freight Costs Soar as Rhine Drops Below Shipping Threshold — 28 September 2026
- Independent main source: Bloomberg — Rhine Sinks to Record Low in Further Blow for Shipping — 24 September 2026
- Additional context: Binnenvaartkrant (ANP) — New low for water level at Lobith (Dutch-language article) — 28 September 2026
- Additional context: Weeronline (ANP) — Rhine water level at Cologne and Kaub falls to record lows (Dutch-language article) — 28 September 2026
- Additional context: Business AM — Record-low Rhine water level disrupts European freight transport (Dutch-language article) — August 2026
Orbecta analysis based on the sources above.