Relevant for: buyers and shippers with container flows between Asia and Northern Europe via Rotterdam or Antwerp, with annual or index-linked contracts with carriers or forwarders, or with CIF/DDP deliveries from Asia.
Spot rates on Asia–Europe have now fallen for twelve consecutive weeks, partly because more ships are sailing through Suez again. Your freight invoice does not automatically follow. Contract rates only move through their index or at renewal, surcharges have their own quarterly rhythm, and the return to Suez barely affects Northern Europe. Maersk raised its emissions surcharge on 1 October, on both imports and exports. This month, set out for each invoice line which mechanism determines the price. Take the gap with the market into your Q4 discussions and your 2027 tender.
What is actually happening
The spot market is falling. According to Drewry's World Container Index, the Shanghai–Rotterdam spot rate fell 2% on 1 October 2026 to 3,399 dollars per 40ft container. On Asia–Europe, rates have now fallen for twelve consecutive weeks according to Drewry, due to weak demand. Drewry explicitly names the rising number of Suez transits as a source of additional effective capacity. That extra capacity is pushing rates down further.
The ships are returning, but not everywhere. According to WorldCargo News, Maersk and Hapag-Lloyd moved four more Gemini services back to the Suez route in September: AE5, AE11, AE12 and ME2. They join AE15 and AE19, which already sailed through Suez. AE11 was the first to sail westbound from Tanjung Pelepas on 19 September. The four services call at ports including Rotterdam, London and Genoa. The return is unevenly spread. According to ChemAnalyst, Red Sea routing stood at 27% of normal in September, averaged across both directions. On the Asia–Europe headhaul it was 13-25%. Arab News cites sector estimates for September: on Asia–Mediterranean, an estimated 35% of headhaul capacity went through Suez. On Asia–Northern Europe it was around 6%. Note: that article centres on an Egyptian minister, and Egypt has an interest in a recovery story for the canal.
Surcharges move independently of the spot price. Maersk recalculates its emissions surcharge (EMS/ESS) every quarter. It is based on the average price of European emission allowances (EUA) on ICE. The Q4 rate applies from 1 October 2026. On the import direction Far East–Northern Europe, the surcharge rose from 155 dollars (Q3) to 170 dollars, or 148 euros, per 40ft dry container. On the export direction Northern Europe–Far East, it rose from 103 to 114 dollars. When it published the Q1 rate, Maersk linked the higher surcharge for 2026 to the EU ETS: shipping lines must cover 100% of their emissions this year, up from 70% in 2025.
Other surcharges are falling. Maersk stopped its LCL peak season surcharge (PSS) from Asia to Northern Europe and the Mediterranean on 17 September. At the end of July, Maersk had still revised its peak season surcharge for containers. The carrier then pointed to the diversion via the Cape of Good Hope and reduced effective capacity.
Structural drivers
Routing determines capacity. The diversion via the Cape keeps ships at sea for longer. That means less capacity is available each week. Every service that returns to Suez frees up ships. Drewry already sees this in the rates. On Asia–Northern Europe, however, the return is limited, so the effect is mainly in the Mediterranean.
Regulation puts a floor under surcharges. The emissions surcharge depends on the EUA price and on the phase-in of the EU ETS. A shorter route does not change that formula by itself. Maersk publishes the surcharge per trade lane and per quarter, not per route actually sailed.
Carriers actively manage prices. According to Drewry, carriers want to introduce higher FAK rates in the second half of October. FAK stands for a single rate for all types of cargo. Drewry calls the success of this uncertain. Carriers are also blanking sailings. On 1 October, Drewry counted five blank sailings on Asia–Europe for the following week, against six the week before.
Security remains the condition. Maersk links every routing change to stability in the Red Sea. According to Seatrade Maritime, the Houthis advanced militarily to the coast of Bab el-Mandeb in mid-September. The return is therefore reversible.
Who is directly affected
Directly: importers of containerised cargo from China and South-East Asia via Rotterdam or Antwerp. Think of machinery, electronics, consumer goods and chemical intermediates. Those who buy on spot or through an index see the fall first. Those with a fixed annual rate see nothing until the review or renewal.
Directly: anyone booking with Maersk with the emissions surcharge as a separate item. Importers from Asia pay 170 dollars per 40ft dry from 1 October, 15 dollars more than in Q3. Exporters to Asia pay 114 dollars, 11 dollars more. So while the spot price falls, this surcharge rises.
Indirectly: buyers purchasing CIF or DDP from Asia. The supplier then pays the ocean freight and builds it into the unit price. A lower freight rate only reaches you when the supplier revises its price.
Probably not directly affected: those who mainly buy within Europe, use air freight, or use dry bulk or tankers. Those markets have their own pricing. They will feel this at a contract renewal with Asian suppliers, or if they switch to ocean freight from Asia.
The second-order effect
Orbecta analysis. The chain runs as follows: more Suez transits → more effective capacity on Asia–Europe → falling spot rates → pressure on contract and index rates. Three scenarios determine whether that pass-through continues.
Scenario 1: the return to Suez extends to Northern Europe. If more services to Rotterdam and Antwerp sail via Suez in Q4, ships from both routes may arrive at the same time during the transition weeks. Cape ships that left earlier then coincide with faster Suez ships. That can cause peaks at the terminals and longer waiting times for barge and truck. Ocean freight then falls, but landside costs can rise temporarily through waiting time and storage.
Scenario 2: the FAK increases succeed. If carriers push through their FAK rates in the second half of October, the fall in the spot market stops. Index contracts with a monthly reference date then pick up that increase at the next reading. Annual contracts stay the same. The room to negotiate for 2027 then becomes smaller than the current spot price suggests.
Scenario 3: security deteriorates. If carriers move services back to the Cape, effective capacity falls again. New peak season surcharges may then follow, like the one Maersk introduced in June. Inventory planning that counted on shorter transit times will then no longer be right.
Procurement indicators: the weekly WCI reading for Shanghai–Rotterdam, the number of blank sailings on Asia–Europe, carrier advisories on routing per service, the quarterly revision of the emissions surcharge and barge waiting times in Rotterdam.
Dutch procurement impact
Contract clauses: which mechanism sets your rate
An annual rate without a review clause stays in place until renewal. The spot fall then only reaches you at the next tender. An index contract follows the market with the delay of its reference date. With a monthly reference date on the WCI, you see the fall within a month. With a quarterly reading, it takes up to three months. Surcharges such as EMS and BAF (bunker adjustment factor) are often separate from the base rate. They move to the carrier's rhythm, not to that of the spot market.
Supplier discussions: CIF and DDP prices may contain old freight
Directly: if you buy CIF or DDP from Asia, there is a freight component in your unit price. It may have been calculated at the rate at the time of quoting. If your supplier quoted in spring or summer, it may be using a higher freight level than the current spot rate. So ask for a breakdown of the freight component. That gives you a factual argument in the Q4 price discussion. You can only enforce a price adjustment if your contract allows for it; otherwise, raise it at the next price round.
Surcharges: the emissions surcharge is not calculated per route sailed
Directly: Maersk calculates the emissions surcharge per trade lane, based on the EUA price. Orbecta analysis: a ship via Suez sails a shorter distance and burns less fuel than via the Cape, but you won't see that saving in a surcharge set per trade lane. Importers now pay the higher Q4 surcharge of 170 dollars per 40ft, exporters 114 dollars.
Sourcing mix and inventory: transit time only counts once routing is confirmed
If a service to Rotterdam demonstrably sails via Suez, the transit time becomes shorter. You then need less inventory in transit. On Asia–Northern Europe, sector estimates put the share of capacity going via Suez in September at around 6%. Planning with shorter lead times for all your Asian imports is therefore premature. Do it per service, based on your carrier's advisory.
Budget and risk: currency and reversibility
Indirectly: spot rates are quoted in dollars, and Maersk publishes the import surcharge in dollars and euros. For dollar items, your invoice in euros also depends on the exchange rate at the time of invoicing. Build your 2027 budget for those items in dollars plus an exchange rate assumption, not as a fixed euro amount per container. Also keep a buffer for the scenario in which services return to the Cape.
What is certain and what is still uncertain
What is certain
- The Shanghai–Rotterdam spot rate stood at 3,399 dollars per 40ft on 1 October 2026, after twelve weeks of decline on Asia–Europe (Drewry).
- Maersk and Hapag-Lloyd moved four more Gemini services back to the Suez route in September, with Rotterdam among the ports of call.
- Maersk's emissions surcharge from 1 October 2026 is 170 dollars per 40ft dry on Far East–Northern Europe (Q3: 155) and 114 dollars on Northern Europe–Far East (Q3: 103).
- Maersk stopped its LCL peak season surcharge Asia–Europe on 17 September.
What is still uncertain
- Whether carriers push through the FAK increases in the second half of October.
- Whether the return to Suez extends to more services on Asia–Northern Europe.
- How long the security situation around Bab el-Mandeb remains stable.
- Whether the transition between Cape and Suez routing leads to peaks at terminals in Rotterdam and Antwerp.
What to watch
- WCI Shanghai–Rotterdam, every Thursday.
- The number of blank sailings on Asia–Europe in Drewry's Cancelled Sailings Tracker.
- Routing advisories per service from your carrier.
- The Q1 2027 revision of the emissions surcharge. Maersk published the Q1 2026 surcharge on 1 December 2025.
- Barge and truck waiting times at your terminal in Rotterdam or Antwerp.
Company exposure: not yet calculated. Link spend and supplier data.
What you can do now
- This month: ask your carrier or forwarder, per lane, which index, reference date and review rhythm your base rate follows. Set it against the WCI Shanghai–Rotterdam of 1 October. If your contract has a review clause, check whether you can invoke it.
- This month: ask your Asian CIF and DDP suppliers in writing which freight rate is included in their current unit price. Then decide whether to bring the fall in freight into your Q4 price discussion.
- This quarter: ask your carrier, for each service to Rotterdam or Antwerp, whether it sails via Suez or the Cape. Only then adjust your lead times and safety stock per service.
- In your 2027 tender: choose for ocean freight between a fixed rate, an index contract or a mix. Set out in that tender how EMS and BAF are calculated and revised; you cannot change that within the current contract.
How Orbecta supports
Contract Intelligence reads, per freight contract, which index, reference date and surcharge clauses apply. Claim Check tests whether the freight component in a supplier price matches the current market. Supply Risk Index tracks routing and security on the Asia–Rotterdam corridor. Warroom Prep prepares the figures for your Q4 discussion and the 2027 tender.
Sources
- Primary source: Maersk — Emissions Surcharge (EMS/ESS), Q4 2026 — 1 September 2026
- Primary source: Maersk — Emissions surcharge (EMS/ESS) 2026, Q3 2026 — 1 June 2026
- Primary source: Maersk — Emissions Surcharge (EMS/ESS), Q1 2026 — 1 December 2025
- Primary source: Maersk — Revision of Peak Season Surcharge (PSS) from Far East Asia to North Europe and Mediterranean (E1W/E2W) — 28 July 2026
- Primary source: Maersk — Implementation of Peak Season Surcharge (PSS) from Far East Asia to North Europe and Mediterranean (E1W/E2W) — 25 May 2026
- Primary source: Maersk — Stoppage of LCL Peak Season Surcharge (PSS) from Far East Asia to North Europe and Mediterranean (E1W/E2W) — 16 September 2026
- Market research: Drewry — World Container Index - 01 Oct — 1 October 2026
- Additional context: WorldCargo News — Maersk, Hapag-Lloyd step up Suez routings — 15 September 2026
- Additional context: Seatrade Maritime — Gemini brings four services back to Red Sea - Suez route — 14 September 2026
- Additional context: ChemAnalyst — Red Sea Routing Hits 27% Normalization as Gemini Adds Four More Services Back to Suez — 18 September 2026
- Additional context: Arab News — Suez Canal recovery is critical to global trade and economic growth: Egyptian minister — date not specified
Orbecta analysis based on the sources above.