Since the Middle East escalation in late February 2026, the London insurance market has been repricing war risk for the Persian Gulf. According to S&P Global Commodity Insights, the Additional War Risk Premium (AWRP) for tankers peaked in early March at around 2.5% of hull value per seven days and eased to roughly 1% by late March. This mainly affects the procurement of Gulf crude, LNG and petrochemical feedstock — not your average Asia container import. Core action: check per Gulf-related shipment whether it transits Hormuz and who bears the war-risk surcharge.
What is actually happening
At its core this is an insurance shock on a single corridor, not a general freight crisis.
- Level A (confirmed). According to S&P Global Commodity Insights, the Additional War Risk Premium for tankers crossing the Persian Gulf reached around 2.5% of Hull & Machinery value per seven days earlier in March 2026, and eased to roughly 1% in the week ended 27 March 2026 as more ships resumed transiting the Strait of Hormuz. That is the metric: a percentage of hull value per seven-day period, i.e. a voyage-linked cost on top of the normal premium.
- Level A (reported). Before the conflict, the war-risk premium for a Hormuz transit was reported at around 0.25% of vessel value; by early March 2026 around 3% was reported. Over a three-month period the Middle East Observer cites an increase of up to around 1,000%. These figures come from context/market sources, not from an official regulatory publication.
- Level A (reported). According to the World Economic Forum, the Joint War Committee of the Lloyd's Market Association expanded its "high-risk" designation to cover the entire Persian Gulf, and major insurers suspended or repriced cover. The WEF reports that before the war an average of 178 ships per day transited the Strait of Hormuz and that traffic has reportedly fallen by about 95%.
- Level B (operational confirmation). According to a report by reinsurance broker Howden Re (27 March 2026), insuring a reference tanker cost around USD 250,000 to USD 375,000 per journey, and at least 9 to 15 tankers have been damaged since the conflict began.
The shock lies not in the oil price itself but in the price and the availability of the insurance that makes transport possible.
The quoted amounts and percentages are in USD with reference dates in March 2026; the situation is a moving target and premiums were already well below the peak by late March.
Structural drivers
The listing mechanism. War risk is largely underwritten in the London market. When the Joint War Committee adds to or expands its list of "high-risk areas", insurers raise premiums almost automatically or require additional cover. That explains why a premium can multiply tenfold within days and, as the S&P figures show, also halve again once risk perception turns.
Baseline reset after two chokepoint crises. Howden Re characterises the sequence Red Sea (2024–2025) and Hormuz (2026) as a structural repricing of marine war risk — a new baseline rather than a temporary spike. For procurement this means: even after de-escalation there is a real chance premiums remain above the pre-2024 level. This is the broker's analysis, not an established future.
Insurer of last resort. The WEF describes how governments act as a backstop when commercial cover dries up. For the buyer the lesson is that cover, not just price, can become the binding constraint: if tankers cannot obtain insurance, they do not sail — and then no surcharge is relevant anymore.
Who is directly affected
First order — directly exposed:
- Charterers and buyers of Gulf crude, oil products and LNG originating in Saudi Arabia, Iraq, Kuwait, Qatar, the UAE or Iran, whose cargo transits Hormuz.
- Buyers of petrochemical feedstock and base chemicals (naphtha, LPG, methanol, ammonia) from Gulf production.
- Gulf-linked container flows to/from hubs such as Jebel Ali (UAE), insofar as they transit Hormuz.
Who is probably NOT directly affected:
- The average Asia–Europe container importer. The bulk of that traffic (China, Southeast Asia) sails via Suez/the Red Sea or around the Cape of Good Hope — not via Hormuz. Anyone importing from China does not feel Hormuz directly (that chain has its own Red Sea issues).
- Condition under which they are still affected: if part of your supply — raw material, semi-finished goods or packaging — is Gulf-origin, or if your supplier processes Gulf feedstock and passes those costs on. Then exposure runs indirectly through the supply chain.
The second-order effect
The chain the Dutch buyer should follow:
- Direct event: JWC expands high-risk designation → insurers reprice AWRP.
- First-order effect: higher voyage-linked insurance costs for tankers and Gulf-linked ships; temporarily reduced transit.
- Second-order effect: the surcharge can be passed through the freight chain and thereby raise the landed cost of Gulf crude, LNG and feedstock — with possible pressure on the margins of chemical and energy-intensive buyers.
- Condition: this effect mainly arises when premiums stay elevated and the buyer purchases on a CIF/CFR basis or sits behind a supplier that is contractually allowed to pass the surcharge on. Under FOB and own transport control the surcharge rests primarily with the buyer.
- Procurement indicator: track the AWRP as a percentage of hull value, the JWC listing status, the number of Hormuz transits, war-risk and bunker surcharges on your invoices, and the spreads between Gulf and non-Gulf feedstock.
The volume and price effect is not automatic: it depends on deferred purchases, inventory levels, origin substitution and the response of refineries and trading houses.
Dutch procurement impact
Rotterdam is Europe's largest port and a central hub for crude oil, oil products and LNG; Antwerp and the ARA region together form one of the largest petrochemical clusters in the world. Insofar as feedstock and energy are Gulf-origin, Dutch/EU practice is indirectly exposed. The concrete company exposure here is not quantified — link your own spend and supplier data to origin.
Contract clauses
Screen your feedstock, energy and freight contracts for the provisions that activate now: war-risk surcharge, general average, force majeure, hardship and price revision/indexation clauses. Watch the Incoterm: under CIF/CFR the seller arranges carriage and insurance, but war-risk surcharges are often charged as an additional item; under FOB the buyer bears the transport risk. A fixed price does not protect automatically — material and war-risk surcharges, availability reservations and limited price validity can still feed through. Have the exact operation verified legally; this is not a legal opinion.
Supplier conversations
Ask suppliers for substantiation of every surcharge invoice: which corridor, which reference date, which index or premium, which share of the cargo it concerns. A war-risk surcharge applied to the full order value while only part transited Hormuz is negotiable.
Sourcing mix
Explore origin diversification for exposed feedstock (for example towards US Gulf Coast, West Africa or North Sea production). Alternatives are not interchangeable: compare on price, quality/specification, lead time, qualification time and logistical fit with your processing site, and benchmark on those criteria rather than switching blindly.
Claim defence
Expect supplier claims citing war risk or force majeure. Test whether the invoked basis covers the exact corridor and period, whether the surcharge is traceable to a benchmark, and whether the pass-through is contractually permitted.
Budget and risk
Determine your exposure with your own data: which share of your feedstock/energy spend is Gulf-origin, and under which Incoterms. Include the USD denomination — premiums and much feedstock are settled in dollars, so FX movement counts in the EUR landed cost.
What is established and what is still uncertain
What is established: the AWRP for Gulf tankers rose sharply in March 2026 (according to S&P Global around 2.5% of hull value per seven days at the peak) and then fell to roughly 1% by late March; the JWC designation was, according to the WEF, expanded to the entire Persian Gulf; at least 9–15 tankers have been damaged according to Howden Re.
What is still uncertain: the exact, current premium level per vessel and flag category; how long the elevated level persists; and the pass-through to landed cost per product group. A primary, official confirmation (the literal JWC listing text or a government/regulatory decision) has not been directly consulted for this article — treat this as an attention signal, not an acute supply alert.
What to watch: AWRP as a % of hull value, JWC listing status, number of Hormuz transits per day, war-risk and bunker surcharges on invoices, and the price spread between Gulf and non-Gulf feedstock.
What you can do now
- (This month — procurement + logistics) Ask your forwarder/carrier in writing whether your Gulf-related shipments (origin/destination UAE, Saudi Arabia, Qatar, Kuwait, Iraq) transit Hormuz, which war-risk surcharge is currently charged and on which Incoterm basis. Decision: determine whether the surcharge is contractually for your account.
- (This month — contract manager/legal) Have feedstock, energy and freight contracts screened for war-risk surcharge, general average, force majeure, hardship and price revision, and ask the supplier for substantiation of each surcharge invoice. Decision: which surcharges you accept, which you dispute.
- (This quarter — category manager) Ask your crude, naphtha, LNG or petrochemical supplier for the origin mix and alternative loading ports, with comparison criteria (price, specification, lead time, qualification). Decision: whether partial origin diversification makes sense.
- (This quarter — finance/treasury) Calculate the exposure by linking spend and supplier data to Gulf origin, including USD FX. Decision: whether or not to hedge or hold a cost buffer.
- (This month — risk) Define trigger indicators (AWRP level, JWC listing, Hormuz transit) and an escalation threshold. Decision: when you activate sourcing plan B.
How Orbecta supports
Orbecta links this corridor development to your own procurement. The Supply Risk Index monitors the Hormuz corridor and premium development; Contract Intelligence exposes which of your feedstock and freight contracts contain war-risk, force majeure and hardship clauses and under which Incoterm; Claim Check tests incoming war-risk and force majeure claims on corridor, period and traceability before you pay.
Sources
Market research: S&P Global Commodity Insights — "War risk insurance cost off highs but still elevated in Persian Gulf" — 30 March 2026.
Operational confirmation: Howden Re — "Strait of Hormuz" report (Business Intelligence) — 27 March 2026.
Additional context: World Economic Forum — "What stopping war-risk insurance in the Strait of Hormuz tells us" — April 2026; Middle East Observer — "Insurance, Not Oil, Is Becoming the Iran War's Biggest Trade Shock" — 3 June 2026.
Orbecta analysis based on the sources above.