On 29 September 2026, CDA and D66 argued in the Dutch House of Representatives against a first growth step for Schiphol towards 500,000 flights during this cabinet term. The new Airport Traffic Decree with a maximum of 478,000 aircraft movements is due to take effect on 1 November 2026. For Dutch shippers moving air freight via Amsterdam, this means: do not count on extra slot capacity in 2027 tenders. Core action: have forwarders work out capacity commitments and alternative gateways per lane, rather than comparing spot rates alone.
What is actually happening
During a parliamentary debate on noise rules on 29 September 2026, MPs Jantine Zwinkels (CDA) and Ulaş Köse (D66) argued that the first step towards 500,000 flights should not be taken during this cabinet term; they intended to table a motion on it. This is a political position, not a decision: whether the motion has been adopted is not confirmed at the time of writing.
In a comprehensive amendment to the Airport Traffic Decree (LVB), the cabinet intends to set a maximum of 478,000 aircraft movements per operating year, of which a maximum of 27,000 at night, effective 1 November 2026, with a conditional prospect of returning to 500,000 if noise falls sufficiently. On 11 March 2026 the Council of State annulled the earlier LVB amendment with the same maximum for insufficient justification.
Who is directly affected
First order: cargo carriers and integrators with (full) freighter operations at Schiphol, and shippers using that capacity or belly space on passenger flights. According to Schiphol figures from 2025, the airport handled around 16,000 cargo flights in 2024, of which 12,000 on historic rights and 4,000 on reissued ad hoc slots — precisely the segment that shrank due to the reduction from 500,000 to 478,000.
Probably not directly affected: buyers without air freight in their mix, and sea, rail and inland waterway flows via Rotterdam. They may still be affected if their suppliers fly urgent parts or samples via Schiphol, or if they must scale up to air freight during a disruption.
The second-order effect
Orbecta analysis (level C): the cap itself does not change today; what disappears is the prospect of extra slot capacity until after this cabinet term. Chain: fixed cap → no growth in freighter and belly capacity at AMS → under scarcity, airlines may prioritise their core network → ad hoc cargo and charters more often divert to Liège, Brussels, Maastricht or Frankfurt, with trucking (road feeder service) to the Netherlands.
Condition: this effect becomes plausible when demand for air freight via Amsterdam rises in 2027 while movements remain at 478,000. With flat demand, the impact stays limited. Procurement indicators: acceptance of ad hoc bookings at AMS, rate validity in quotations, trucking surcharges to alternative gateways and lead time of diverted shipments.
Dutch procurement impact
Possibly directly relevant: air freight contracts in high-tech and the semiconductor chain (urgent parts), pharma/medtech and agrifood exports (flowers, fresh produce) routed via Schiphol. Indirect: machine builders with machine-down urgent logistics for service parts. Possible: cost items that move along when diverting, such as trucking, extra handling and customs clearance in Belgium or Germany.
Alternatives are not equivalent. Compare gateways on trucking time to your DC, availability of GDP or cold-chain certification, handling capacity, customs set-up and total landed cost. According to Schiphol, Maastricht Aachen Airport was positioned as a supplementary cargo airport; whether sufficient suitable capacity exists there in 2027 must be tested per lane. Company exposure: not yet calculated — link spend and shipment data per gateway.
What is certain and what remains uncertain
What is certain: CDA and D66 argued on 29 September 2026 against a growth step this cabinet term; the cabinet intends to set 478,000 movements (27,000 at night) from 1 November 2026; the Council of State annulled the previous decree on 11 March 2026.
What remains uncertain: whether the motion has been adopted; whether the new LVB will hold up legally; what share of cargo capacity will be available via ad hoc slots in 2027. A primary source from the ministry or the House of Representatives on the debate is missing from this briefing.
What to watch: the vote on the motion, publication of the LVB in the Government Gazette, slot allocation for summer season 2027 and trucking rates from Liège and Frankfurt.
What you can do now
- Logistics buyer, this week: ask your air freight forwarder, per lane, what share of your 2026 volume via Schiphol ran on fixed allocation versus ad hoc/charter, then decide which lanes need a capacity guarantee in the 2027 tender.
- Tender manager, before the 2027 tender closes: require bidders to submit, alongside AMS, a rate option via at least one alternative gateway, including trucking, handling and lead time, and benchmark it on landed cost and certification.
- Contract manager, within two weeks: review rate validity, capacity commitments, surcharge clauses and rerouting rights in existing forwarder contracts; decide whether to combine fixed allocation, partial allocation with indexation, or spot.
- Category manager urgent logistics, this month: ask suppliers that fly in urgent parts which airport they ship through and who bears the extra costs when diverting.
How Orbecta supports
The Supply Risk Index tracks the Schiphol corridor and alternative gateways; Contract Intelligence flags capacity and rerouting clauses in forwarder contracts, and Warroom Prep supports the 2027 tender negotiation.
Sources
Primary source: Council of State (Raad van State) — Administrative Jurisdiction Division annuls Airport Traffic Decree for Schiphol — 11 March 2026
Additional context: Airwork — CDA and D66: no first step towards Schiphol growth this cabinet term — 29 September 2026
Additional context: WNL — Tension over Schiphol's future rises further — 29 September 2026
Additional context: Nieuwsblad Transport — Schiphol targets 2 million tonnes of air freight in 2035 despite reduction — 28 May 2025
Orbecta analysis based on the sources above.