Suez transits +27% and four Gemini services via Suez: fix routing and surcharges in Q4 tenders

Suez Canal transits in August were 27% higher than a year earlier, and Maersk and Hapag-Lloyd are moving four Gemini services onto the Suez route. At the same time the Q4 rate round is about to start, Hapag-Lloyd is still seeking Israeli approval for its takeover of Zim, and the Dutch ban on scrubber discharges now has an enforcement date. The key question for anyone buying Asia–North Europe freight: who captures the benefit of the shorter route, you or the carrier? The key action: get routing, transit time and surcharges fixed per service before you sign Q4 and 2027 rates.

The week in one sentence

The Red Sea route is coming back, but only partly and selectively. Shippers who do not fix, per service, which route applies and which diversion surcharges fall away in the Q4 and 2027 contract round are likely to leave the benefit of a shorter voyage with the carrier.

The signals

1. Suez traffic is recovering, but selectively and mainly on the backhaul

According to Suez Canal Authority (SCA) chairman Osama Rabie, 1,358 vessels transited the canal in August 2026, against 1,070 in August 2025: an increase of 27%. Net tonnage rose 51.1% to 68.3 million tonnes, and revenue rose 56.7% to USD 567.1 million [2]. On 14 September Maersk and Hapag-Lloyd announced that the Gemini services AE5, AE11, AE12 and ME2 will sail via the Suez Canal instead of via the Cape of Good Hope. AE15 and AE19 were already using that route [3].

The recovery is uneven. According to Sea-Intelligence analysis cited by logistics provider Shipco, the share of Asia–Europe capacity routed via the Red Sea on the headhaul (towards Europe) remains fairly stable at between 13% and 25%. On the Europe–Asia backhaul, that share rose from 18-26% in August to 25-47% in September [4]. According to Shipco, ONE, HMM, Yang Ming and Evergreen are still avoiding the Red Sea [4]. The SCA figures cover the whole canal, not only Asia–North Europe container services.

Analysis: the first-order effect is a shorter voyage on some services. For exporters to Asia this already applies to a substantial share of capacity; for importers it is still a minority. The second-order effect: if one service sails via Suez and another via the Cape, arrivals in North-West Europe could start to bunch. That could put temporary pressure on terminal windows. This depends on how carriers adjust their schedules and has not been confirmed.

2. Rates are moving sideways as Golden Week approaches

The Drewry World Container Index (WCI), a market research benchmark for spot rates, stood at USD 4,476 per 40ft container on 10 September. On 17 September the index rose 1% to USD 4,500 [1]. Scan reports this week mention a slight fall in the WCI, as Asia–Europe rates declined while the Suez route returns. Other reports mention rising spot rates on the last sailings before Chinese Golden Week, which starts on 1 October. We have not been able to verify this week's exact WCI level, or the size of those Golden Week premiums, in any source we consulted.

Analysis: the make-up of your rate matters more than the index level. Many rates still include surcharges that were introduced because of the longer Cape route. If the share of Suez capacity on the headhaul rises, it becomes plausible that those surcharges become negotiable. There is no evidence that the market will drop them of its own accord.

3. Hapag-Lloyd and FIMI revise the Zim bid, outcome open

On 24 September Hapag-Lloyd and investment fund FIMI submitted revised terms for their takeover of Zim, a deal worth around USD 4.2 billion (USD 35 per share) [5]. The structure splits Zim: Hapag-Lloyd takes over the international operations, while FIMI keeps a separate "Zim Israel" under the Israeli golden share [5]. According to Globes, the price is unchanged, and the parties aim to complete the business plan and legal framework within 45 days [6]. Israeli approval is still uncertain [5].

Analysis: for a Dutch buyer this is not an acute supply risk. It is, however, a sign of further concentration at Gemini partner Hapag-Lloyd. Whether and how Zim contracts, services or port calls will change is not known. Shippers that treat Zim and Hapag-Lloyd as a diversified carrier pair may have less diversification than they assume once the deal completes.

4. The Dutch scrubber ban gets a firm date: 1 July 2030

In a letter to Parliament dated 23 September, Minister Karremans (Infrastructure and Water Management) states that the discharge of washwater from open-loop scrubbers in Dutch inland waters and port areas will be enforced from 1 July 2030. The enforcement regulations still have to be drafted [7][8]. According to the ministry decision memo cited by Transport Online, an estimated 5,000 seagoing vessels worldwide, about 5% of the fleet, had a scrubber in 2023. The ban is being aligned with OSPAR agreements [8].

Analysis: from then on, ships with open-loop scrubbers will have to switch to low-sulphur fuel, or to closed-loop or hybrid systems, in Dutch ports. That could raise fuel and compliance costs for those ships. Whether carriers will pass this on, and through which surcharge, is not known. It matters mainly for multi-year contracts that run beyond 2030.

The common thread

The signals share one question: who carries the cost benefit and the cost burden of changes in routing and regulation. The Suez return (signal 1) can shorten the voyage on some services. The rate index (signal 2) does not yet show a clear decline. Carrier concentration (signal 3) and new port rules (signal 4) determine how much negotiating room, and which cost items, remain over the coming years.

As long as contracts only state an all-in rate per container, without fixing per service which route applies and when diversion surcharges fall away, the buyer has little grip on the benefit of a shorter route. This is analysis; the scenario becomes more plausible as more headhaul capacity sails via Suez.

Dutch procurement impact

• Direct (routing and transit time): Dutch importers and exporters on Asia–North Europe via Rotterdam and Antwerp. Think of trading goods, components for machine building and high-tech, chemical intermediates and agrifood inputs. For exporters to Asia the effect is currently larger, because the backhaul is shifting more strongly to Suez [4].
• Indirect (planning and inventory): companies with safety stock based on Cape transit times; a shorter but service-dependent transit time can temporarily make planning less predictable.
• Possible (2030 and beyond): buyers of multi-year deep-sea and short-sea contracts with calls at Dutch ports, if carriers pass on compliance costs from the scrubber ban [7].
• Probably not directly affected: air freight, intra-European road and rail transport, and transpacific flows. They can still be affected indirectly if capacity shifts between trades, or if contracts adopt generic surcharge clauses on renewal.

Company exposure: not yet calculated. Link spend, lane and carrier data to establish per flow which share moves on Suez services.

What is certain and what is still uncertain

What is certain

• SCA: 1,358 transits in August 2026 (+27% year on year) and revenue of USD 567.1 million (+56.7%) [2].
• The Gemini services AE5, AE11, AE12 and ME2 will sail via Suez (announced 14 September) [3].
• Drewry WCI: USD 4,500 per 40ft on 17 September (+1%) [1].
• Hapag-Lloyd and FIMI submitted a revised bid for Zim on 24 September. Israeli approval is still pending [5][6].
• Enforcement of the discharge ban for open-loop scrubbers in Dutch ports starts on 1 July 2030. The detailed rules are still to come [7][8].

What is still uncertain

• Whether carriers will phase out diversion surcharges as headhaul capacity via Suez rises.
• Whether arrivals in Rotterdam and Antwerp will bunch because of mixed routing.
• How durable the Red Sea route is. A new security incident could send services back round the Cape.
• What the Zim deal means for North European services and contracts.
• How the scrubber ban will be implemented legally and passed on.
• Primary confirmation is missing: we verified the SCA figures, the letter to Parliament and the carrier announcements through media and service providers, not through the original publications. This week's Golden Week premiums and WCI fall have not been independently verified.

What to watch

• The share of headhaul capacity via Suez: does it rise above the current range of 13-25%? [4]
• The weekly Shanghai–Rotterdam WCI level after Golden Week, compared with the weeks around 17 September.
• Carrier advisories on contingency or diversion surcharges and blank sailings in October.
• Schedule reliability and waiting times for terminal windows in Rotterdam and Antwerp.
• The Israeli decision on Zim within the announced 45-day window [6].

What you can do now

1. Signal 1, routing: this week, the logistics manager asks the forwarder in writing, per contract service Asia–Rotterdam/Antwerp, whether it sails via Suez or the Cape and which transit time applies to October and November sailings. Decision within two weeks: adjust planning parameters and safety stock per flow, not across the board.
2. Signal 2, rates: before 1 October, the logistics buyer asks two or three carriers or forwarders for Q4 and 2027 quotes in several variants: fixed rate, index-linked (WCI or a comparable benchmark), and hybrid with a price band. Ask at the same time for price validity, volume commitments and a breakdown of all surcharges. Decide after comparing them. Do not fix on a single reference point around Golden Week.
3. Signals 1 and 2, surcharges: within two weeks, the contract manager asks current carriers which surcharges are tied to the Cape route and under what condition they lapse. Decision: include a clause requiring those surcharges to be demonstrably phased out when routing switches to Suez.
4. Signal 3, carrier diversification: within the 45-day window, the ocean freight category manager asks the Hapag-Lloyd and Zim account managers what the takeover means for current contracts, services and port calls. Decision: check whether your carrier portfolio is still sufficiently diversified after the deal. Criteria for alternatives: service coverage, transit time, reliability, equipment and contract terms.
5. Signal 4, 2030 clauses: at the next tender for deep-sea and short-sea contracts running beyond 1 July 2030, legal and procurement stipulate that carriers may only pass on compliance costs through a transparent mechanism defined in advance. Ask the carrier to state the scrubber status of the vessels deployed. Have the legal details verified by your own compliance function.

How Orbecta supports

The Supply Risk Index tracks Asia–North Europe corridor risks, such as the Suez/Cape routing mix and schedule reliability. Contract Intelligence finds the clauses in your freight contracts that cover surcharges, routing and the pass-through of regulatory costs. Claim Check tests whether surcharges and rate increases announced by a carrier match the actual route and the index trend. Warroom Prep sets out the Q4 and 2027 negotiation variants (fixed, index, hybrid) side by side.

Sources

Market research: [1] Drewry — World Container Index assessed by Drewry — 17 September 2026. Operational confirmation: [4] Shipco Transport — Suez Canal Container Traffic Reaches 72.1 Million Tons as Red Sea Transits Increase — September 2026. Independent main source: [6] Globes — Hapag-Lloyd, FIMI submit revised offer for ZIM — 24 September 2026. Additional context: [2] Daily News Egypt — Suez Canal traffic rises 27% in August as Egypt increases maritime services — 20 September 2026. [3] El Estrecho Digital — Traffic through the Suez Canal increases by 27% in August — 22 September 2026. [5] FreightWaves — Hapag-Lloyd revises Zim offer as Israeli approval concerns persist — 25 September 2026. [7] Nieuwsblad Transport — Ban on scrubber discharges in Dutch ports gets a firm date (Dutch-language article) — 25 September 2026. [8] Transport Online — Netherlands to ban seagoing vessels from discharging scrubber washwater in ports from 1 July 2030 (Dutch-language article) — 24 September 2026.

Orbecta analysis based on the sources above.